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Each year, the Home Office presents its Prevent statistics as part of its commitment to transparency. Here we outline THREE reasons why we must not rely upon them as a credible reference point.
For every researcher, NGO and individual who has ever requested a Freedom of Information request about Prevent, it is clear that the Home Office has been far from transparent about the operation, delivery and impact of Prevent.
The annual Prevent statistics, and especially their most recent publication on the 5th of December, only serves to reinforce this trend.
While the data presented this year is more detailed than ever before, it paradoxically tells us even less about the reality and impact of Prevent, in particular on children and other vulnerable individuals.
The most obvious lie: When the numbers don’t add up
This year’s Prevent report breaks precedent by dedicating an entire chapter to trends following October 7th, 2023—a move that was not made even during years when the UK faced multiple terrorist attacks, such as in 2017/2018.
Although the statistics show that in October, November and December the number of referrals to Prevent were higher than the year before, they downplay the significance of this increase.
They do this by stating that there is “little difference” when compared to 2022 and 2021. In addition, they fail to differentiate the referrals related to the discourse around Palestine.
This is a significant omission, especially considering statements from senior counter-terrorism officials.
For instance, just six weeks after October 7th, Metropolitan Police Counter Terrorism Commander, Dominic Murphy, said that there had been a “really big number” of Prevent referrals in London since October 7 – that is, 70 referrals. He said this included “a large number of younger people, or first time individuals, [being referred] into Prevent for the first time.”
Similarly, and more recently, when reflecting on the year from October 7th, Matt Jukes, Head of Counter Terrorism police said: “CTP has seen a seven percent increase in referrals to Prevent compared to the same time period of the previous year”.
The Home Office’s refusal to provide a similar level of context, coupled with the discrepancies between its publication and the public statements of senior officials, exposes the lie behind its claims of transparency.
The most harmful lie: When children are criminalised
Previous data shared by the Home Office with regards to the ages of those referred to Prevent made it difficult to ascertain the number of children under 18 impacted by Prevent. This year, the Home Office has refined the age groups “to provide additional detail on the makeup of Prevent referrals”.
But what additional data is really necessary to understand that children are disproportionately impacted by Prevent?
The Home Office data has shown, year after year, that children make up approximately two-thirds of all Prevent referrals. Although it has never delineated the age ranges properly, the Home Office has never hidden this information.
But what it has done is normalise the idea that children are a potential threat.
Since Prevent has been put forward as the best practice model for countering extremism, this normalisation is not just confined to the UK.
It is reinforced globally, as seen in a recent Five Eyes report published in sync with the Home Office Prevent statistics. The Five Eyes intelligence alliance, which includes the UK, US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, has highlighted children as an increasing concern for violent extremism.
This report feeds into and amplifies the narrative established by Prevent, reinforcing the “whole society response” by claiming that children are increasingly being charged with terrorism, while omitting the context: that what constitutes a “terrorism threat” is at a much lower threshold thanks to the 2019 Counter-Terrorism and Border Security Act.
With over 5 million public sector workers, many of whom work with children, trained to spot potential signs of extremism, the UK has institutionalised and normalised the harmful practice of criminalising children.
The “whole society response” that is called for by the Five Eyes report is Prevent itself.
As a result, essential societal roles are now shaped by Prevent’s agenda, fostering an environment where suspicion of children is embedded in even the most basic interactions.
The most revealing lie: When Prevent is the answer to everything
Every year the Home Office breaks down the Prevent statistics by “type of concern”, and year on year the categories seem to multiply, creating more confusion than clarity.
One category that starkly exposes Prevent’s flawed logic is “vulnerability present but no CT risk nor ideology present”.
According to the Home Office, this category accounted for the largest proportion of Prevent referrals in recent data, at 36% (2,489 individuals).
Referrals that do not require any CT involvement are not a new development, but rather a consistent feature that has plagued Prevent since its inception.
Although they were only formally categorised in 2020, these individuals could have been supported through non-securitised systems such as mental health, social care, or education.
In other words, 36% of referrals need not have ended up being in a counter-terrorism framework, and should rather have received support.
However, instead of being reported as a failure of Prevent, these individuals are used as a cynical demonstration of Prevent’s “necessity”.
We also know that the 36% figure is a gross misrepresentation of the true scale of cases that could have been spared a counter terrorism approach.
Since Prevent’s introduction, the vast majority of referrals— 93% in this recent publication – have not even been adopted by the Channel “deradicalisation” programme, because they were deemed “unsuitable” for this pathway.
Therefore, by Prevent’s own flawed logic and its own statistical admissions, the net for referrals is cast far, far too wide.
Even at its most “successful” point, it is still ensnaring innocent children who are engaging in lawful ideas or behaviours.
Once again, instead of recognising the annual statistics as evidence of a flawed and failing programme, the Home Office uses them and accompanying narratives to justify Prevent’s existence.
The truth behind the numbers
The annual release of statistics by the Home Office, framed as an exercise in transparency, only serves to obfuscate Prevent’s systemic flaws.
Getting caught up in these statistics only serves as a diversion from the real issues – that Prevent is curtailing rights and civil liberties, it is harming children and, above all, it is not preventing terrorism as it continues to claim.
Rather than manipulating data year after year to maintain a façade of legitimacy, it is time for the new government to confront the reality: Prevent has failed!
The growing chorus of calls to suspend Prevent—including from the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child, the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination, and a host of civil society organisations—are more justified than ever.
